
Before you take your tickets and get in line on the Ben Franklin bridge, let's take some time to review the first half of the season as the All-Star game approaches and to preview the upcoming second half of the season on the Phillies quest to reach a third straight World Series appearance:
WHERE WE STAND:
As of today, the Phillies record stands at 44-40, 5.5 games behind first place Atlanta, and 2.5 games behind the wildcard leading Mets.
WHAT WENT RIGHT:
In most Phillies fans eyes, not much but let's take a closer look.
Phillies pitching (Starting Staff): Though middle of the pack in terms of rank within the NL, the pitching staff as a whole has provided instances of greatness (ie; see Halladay/Perfect Game). Overall, the starting staff has been better than most thought at the beginning of the season. Roy Halladay has come as advertised, leading the NL in complete games and has been your most consistent starter throughout the year. Though his record stands at 10-6, with better run support your looking at someone who should have 12-13 wins right now to go along with his 2.32 ERA. Cole Hamels has performed well in the past 2 months, though his record does not show it. After another slow start, Cole has shown signs of greatness and he has kept his head more even keeled this year, not going into the tank once a runner reaches first. Jamie Moyer is defying father time once again, keeping the Phillies in games (except for the occasional 5 run inning) and being a steady hand on both the mound and in the dugout. Kyle Kendrick has pitched surprisingly well recently. Inconsistency has been his biggest downfall, often faring better on the road then in front of the home crowd. He has kept the team in games for the most part. Joe Blanton has been the biggest concern in the rotation though he has shown at times that he can pitch the occasional good game. The starting staff has suffered from an overall lack of run support, making it look worse than it is. They have done all of this without a healthy JA Happ who has yet to pitch in the majors since he suffered a forearm injury in mid-April.
Bench Options:
Statistically speaking, not a strong point on this club, but the bench as a whole has shown the ability to step in for injured starters when needed (which has been alot). Wilson Valdez has been a find, currently starting at 2B for the injured Chase Utley and also spending time at SS and 3B earlier this season. He has shown the ability to drive the ball and play solid defense when called upon. Juan Castro has taken a seat behind Valdez recently but performed admirably for an injured Jimmy Rollins at SS along with being a defensive replacement at 3B. His batting average has nosedived over the past month or so but he wasn't brought in to hit .300. Ross Gload has been solid as a pinch hitter, hitting 3 pinch hit homeruns and starting on days when Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard need a breather. Ben Francisco also has come on as of late, showing that with more opportunities at the plate, the better he hits. The trio of Brian Schneider, Dane Sardinha, and Paul Hoover have performed well when called upon to spell Chooch or start when Carlos has been injured, showing the ability to hit the ball and to call a good game. Greg Dobbs is another story. Just two years ago, Greg was the best pinch hitter in baseball but has seen a precipitous nose dive in production and ability at 3B. Even with the mass amount of injuries this team has endured, Greg was reassigned and eventually accepted a demotion to Lehigh Valley from which he is back due to the placement of Chase and Placido Polanco on the DL.
The ability to stay above water:
Not what you expected to hear going into a season where many were picking the Phillies to arrive at their third Fall Classic in cruising fashion. The Phillies have managed to stay afloat in a much more competitive NL East where the Braves have shown dominance and the Mets are playing well, even with a younger cast. Truth be told, the fact that the Phillies are 4 games above .500 is a blessing seeing that they have sent more players to the DL then they've had to in the past 4 or 5 years and the fact that their lineup, once thought their strongest point, has been so inconsistent even with the guys who have managed to make it through unscathed.
WHATS GONE WRONG:
Though most believe I could write a book on this alone, I'll pinpoint the major deficiencies that I've seen.
Injuries:
This should be in all caps with a few exclamation points behind it. During this recent 5-6 year stretch, at no time have the Phillies had to deal with the multitude of injuries that have befallen this team. In no particular order, here are the players who have been on the DL since the beginning of April:
Brad Lidge
Chad Durbin
Ryan Madson
JC Romero
Carlos Ruiz
Jimmy Rollins (DL'd twice)
Placido Polanco
Brian Schneider
Chase Utley
JA Happ
Happ has missed most of the first half of the season due to a forearm strain and has yet to find his rythym on the farm and it's not known if he will be able to contribute at all on the big club this season. Madson missed the better portion of two months due to a self-inflicted injury of which he has just been activated. Most notably, Chase and Polanco have been sidelined with more serious injuries. Placido's situation is a nagging injury but we should see him back sooner rather than later but in Chase's case, his torn thumb ligament will sideline him until late August at the earliest. This is a disturbing amount of injuries for any team, let alone for a team with championship aspirations.
Bullpen:
This is seemingly a weak link, year-in year-out, save for the 2008 season. There have been a few who have pitched well in spurts including Chad Durbin, JC Romero, and Jose Contreras. David Herndon and Nelson Figueroa have pitched well in place of some of their injured mates though noone expected them to play much of a role. The biggest concerns come from the back end of the pen. Dannys Baez has been an utter disappointment since being signed as a free agent. Baez is older and has seemingly lost the stuff that made him a solid contributor in the past. When healthy, Ryan Madson has performed well below expectations, showing a lack of nerves when put into critical situations. And last but not least, Brad Lidge. It looks as if the magical run of 2008 was more of an abberration than a sign of things to come. He seems to have regressed in both health and moxie, showing an inability to perform with any type of confidence when dealing with runners on base or in big situations.
Offensive Consistency:
For years you could count on this club to provide you with consistent run support on a nightly basis, only running into intermittent struggles at the plate. But for the better half of two months this club has shown impatience at the plate and a feeling of "I have to carry this team on my back" due to the injuries. Far too often, the starting 8 swing for the fences, lack plate discipline, and struggle playing small ball at critical times. At points I feel that this club believes that the numbers on the back of their baseball cards will hold true, but in reality, you have to keep working at it. Save for Ryan Howard, every position player has gone through a prolonged slump, whether it be because age (Ibanez), baseball acumen (Victorino), or possibly a brighter, more lucrative future (Werth). I compare the Phillies to the female anotomy. They all seem to sync up to everyone else in the lineup. When they hit, they all hit. And they put up huge numbers! But when one player slumps, they all tend to follow suit.
WHAT TO LOOK FORWARD TO:
Hopefully the Phillies use the All-Star break to rest, find their inner chi, and refocus themselves for the second half. They could come out of the break more relaxed and driven. The offense should come back more in tune and as long as they receive the consistent starting pitching they've received thus far and the bullpen steps it up, they can make some stride. The Braves have yet to endure any big time injuries to their starters (save for Heyward's DL stint and Chipper Jone's chronic leg issues) and with some older arms in their rotation, could be susceptible to the injury bug. The Mets have had some of their younger guys play well above their experience so expect them to come back to earth a bit. If this holds true, the Phillies should remain in the hunt for both the division and wild card. Also, expect Ruben Amaro to make some moves. Over the past few years, under both Ruben Amaro and Pat Gillick, the Phils have shown the affinity to make savy moves for veteran help both in the lineup (see Iguchi,Stairs) and the rotation (see Lee, Moyer, Blanton). Though the trades for Lee and Halladay over the past year have taken away some of the Phils brightest prospects, they still have enough talent in the system to acquire a starting pitcher, some bullpen help, and an infielder to spell the positions of Polanco and Utley until they return. Regardless of who arrives, they will need to make some moves. Keep an eye out for two names, one in the system and one in the Dominican. Dominic Brown should make his big league debut at some point this summer, whether it be spelling the starting outfielders or playing a platoon role with Ibanez in left. Either way, in my opinion, he has shown enough in the minors to warrant a promotion. Also, Pedro Martinez could be a possibility. It was around this time last year that the Phils kicked the tires on signing Pedro and he became a stalwart in the rotation from August on. Keep in mind, these are just possibilities, not probabilities. Historically, the Phils have made the right moves at the right time, and with the same braintrust still in play, I can see good things to come on that front. Available players to keep in mind: Miguel Tejada, Ty Wigginton, Kelly Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Ben Sheets, Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, etc. One more thing to hope for is the return of the normal starting 8 from injury and lady luck to smile upon this team. It's often said, you have to be lucky to be good and the Phils have not had enough of those bounces go their way as of yet. Expect more bats to make contact, more rallys to be had, and more energy in the ballpark as fall approaches.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
Expect the Phils to come out of the gates firing after the break. Expect them to stay in the hunt for the NL East and hope for the Braves and Mets to take two strides back. I can't predict if they will be in the playoffs but I expect them to be in it for the long haul, down to the last week.
My guess...they win the NL East (narrowly) and then...we'll see!
Let me know your predictions!